SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in a 95% probability of SpaceX going public by end-2026, but the 3-cent spread between Polymarket (95¢) and Kalshi (92¢) suggests meaningful disagreement on this near-certainty outcome.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 95% probability of SpaceX going public by end-2026, but the 3-cent spread between Polymarket (95¢) and Kalshi (92¢) suggests meaningful disagreement on this near-certainty outcome. The extreme 2688% implied yield on "No" reflects the tiny 5% tail risk, yet realized volatility of 76% and a vol ratio of 2.76 indicate significant price swings despite the high conviction, possibly driven by sporadic news about Elon Musk's IPO intentions or regulatory developments arriving at 0.5 events per hour. With only 258 days to resolution and $23.2K open interest, liquidity is modest for such a high-probability binary event.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
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Trade
sf trade 0xc8a898fa8ce2121e3bba1ee52120ed8ab4f8ea7ed5a6dcd9b138fe7b9e454c0b yes 100