July 31 · Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by
July 31 is priced at 32¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 31¢ bid, 32¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?.
Price history
32¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
July 31
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
December 31 48¢
Range
6¢-48¢
Family volume
$8.2M
Identifier
0xc11f4137...e480
May 28, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
32¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$34K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$8.2M
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 32¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
0xc11f4137…e480
Event family
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8.2M
Outcomes
4
Highest price
December 31 48¢
Current share
1%
December 31
polymarket · 0xe846dd72f8a654ef137a3e23a88226400b42cc0ca817ab4390a615860e08cafa
July 31
polymarket · 0xc11f41372087c4d934ae7adb869ff08272b2bcb3e242d4e628330353c130e480
June 30
polymarket · 0x6cb3ec9e0fb1c258898f648f8b33422f59ba3e8a71aee551449d7cb147bb8ead
May 31
polymarket · 0xd39905267d79b715f078279ef41f311b791c6e2c7361fea38011492b632212ef
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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