Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...
Leader sits at 35% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
July 31
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$71K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?: June 30
0x6cb3ec…8ead
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?: December 31
0xe846dd…cafa
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?: July 31
0xc11f41…e480
Analysis
This probability reflects trader expectations that Iran will formally agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026. Currently priced at 33%, it represents a roughly one-in-three chance of such an agreement within the next seven months. The level reflects both the difficulty of past nuclear negotiations with Iran and the potential for diplomatic reopening. Traders assign significantly lower odds to earlier deadlines (9-12% for May-June resolutions), suggesting skepticism about near-term breakthroughs. The main factors moving this probability are the status of US-Iran relations, whether diplomatic channels remain open, and whether economic incentives align for both parties. Any major geopolitical escalation or shift in US policy toward Iran would substantially affect these odds.
- ›Current US-Iran diplomatic engagement status and whether formal negotiations on nuclear stockpiles have resumed or are scheduled
- ›Historical pattern: previous JCPOA negotiations took 18+ months; shorter timelines require either dramatic policy shifts or pre-existing agreement frameworks
- ›Relative contract pricing shows traders price May-June resolutions at 9-12% versus 33% for December 31, indicating belief that any agreement requires multiple quarters of negotiation
- ›Economic and sanctions pressure on Iran versus willingness to engage—the tradeoff determines incentive alignment for surrendering rather than retaining enriched uranium
- ›Third-party verification mechanisms and international oversight requirements—technical feasibility of surrender logistics affects whether negotiations succeed by year-end
What moved the line
- Jun 1June 30↓8pp19→11¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1July 31↓6pp28→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 31July 31↓5pp33→28¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2July 31↓5pp22→17¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5July 31↑5pp18→23¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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