June 30 · Israel military action against Yemen by
June 30 is priced at 16¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 15¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
16¢ current
−7¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
June 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$535K
Identifier
0x3fe18d2b...e11c
Jun 7, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$12K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$535K
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x3fe18d2b…e11c
Event family
Israel military action against Yemen by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$535K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
June 30 16¢
Current share
100%
June 30
polymarket · 0x3fe18d2b6303ee3a7e406aab679dbc0b0f7504dc6b477a31c69c6ffb04e9e11c
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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