Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 51% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
51%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$90
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1282 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030
Analysis
This market estimates a 23% chance that Israel will conduct military action against Iran's Fordow nuclear facility by a specified deadline. The probability reflects ongoing regional tensions and Iran's nuclear program developments, balanced against diplomatic efforts and the significant military and geopolitical risks such action would entail. Factors pushing the probability higher include escalations in Israeli-Iranian proxy conflicts or breakthroughs in Iranian nuclear capabilities; factors pushing it lower include diplomatic negotiations or de-escalation agreements. The resolution hinges on observable Israeli military operations, international statements, and Iran's nuclear advancement trajectory during the contract period.
- ›Status of Iranian nuclear enrichment levels at Fordow as monitored by IAEA inspections and public reporting
- ›Frequency and intensity of Israeli military operations against Iranian positions in Syria, Lebanon, or Iraq during the contract period
- ›Statements from Israeli government officials regarding red lines for military intervention in Iran's nuclear program
- ›Activity in diplomatic channels between Iran, Israel, US, and European parties regarding nuclear negotiations
- ›Any Israeli or allied air defense system deployments or military posturing changes near Iranian airspace
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (51% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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