Gulf State military action against Iran by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before” vs “Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26NOV04
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26SEP01
Cluster 2
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?: Before 2027
KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Cluster 3
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?: Reza Pahlavi
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
Analysis
This probability represents the assessed likelihood that a Gulf State—such as Saudi Arabia or the UAE—will conduct military action against Iran by a specified date. The 19% aggregate probability reflects moderate but non-negligible market concern about escalation in the region. The estimate is shaped by two primary drivers: first, the current state of US-Iran tensions and whether diplomatic or military pressure intensifies; second, the degree to which Gulf States perceive Iranian nuclear advancement or regional proxy activity as threatening enough to warrant direct action. The cross-venue gap suggests different risk assessments between markets. Key upcoming catalysts include developments in Iran's nuclear program, any major incidents involving Iranian proxies, and shifts in US policy toward Iran following the 2026 midterm elections. The related contracts on Israel-Yemen action and Iranian regime change reflect broader regional instability concerns that could either trigger or prevent Gulf military escalation.
- ›Current US diplomatic stance and military posture toward Iran, which directly influences Gulf State confidence in backing or conducting independent action
- ›Status of Iran's nuclear program development and any IAEA reporting on uranium enrichment levels or weapons capability progress
- ›Recent Iranian proxy activity in the region—including Houthi attacks, Iraqi militia operations, or other asymmetric threats that might provoke direct Gulf response
- ›Internal political stability of potential actor states (Saudi Arabia, UAE) and leadership appetite for military commitment versus economic priorities
- ›Historical patterns showing Gulf States typically act with tacit or explicit US support; absence of this backing would substantially reduce action probability
What moved the line
- Jul 18Before Nov 4, 2026↑9pp31→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Before Nov 4, 2026↑3pp40→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Before Nov 4, 2026↓3pp43→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Before Sep 1, 2026↓3pp26→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios
Prediction markets are pricing simultaneous 36% regime-collapse and 50% nuclear-deal odds for Iran, suggesting traders see extreme volatility and binary outcomes rather than gradual policy shifts.
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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