Gulf State military action against Iran by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 13 contracts. Kalshi at 12%, Polymarket at 19% — a 7pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
5 contracts
Polymarket
19%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
7pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$151K
13 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
208 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 12¢ · Polymarket 19¢ · 7pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (12¢, 5 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (19¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026” vs “Israel military action against”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 10
0x30a1d6…1b86
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 9
0x5759fb…f692
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 8
0x713ab2…dfda
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 11
0x4fa0df…b39a
Cluster 2
Israel military action against
Cluster 3
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26NOV04
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26SEP01
Cluster 4
US military action against Cuba by
US military action against Cuba by...?: December 31
0x3de0f3…7de0
Cluster 5
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?: Reza Pahlavi
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
Cluster 6
Iran leader end of 2026
Iran leader end of 2026?: No Head of State
0x6397f0…46d6
Cluster 7
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?: Before 2027
KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26
Cluster 8
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iran
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iran?: Iran
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-IRA
What moved the line
- May 31Before Nov 4, 2026↓10pp27→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 310↓7pp18→11¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1June 30↑6pp12→18¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 410↑6pp11→17¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 39↓6pp26→20¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 2d
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 4d
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10last 96% · 4d
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Maylast 3% · 4d
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in iran.
In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.
Iran Diplomatic Hopes Fade: Peace Deal and Nuclear Contract Odds Slide
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 crashed 15 points to 24%, and odds on a permanent peace deal by the same date fell below 25%. Oil markets are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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