SimpleFunctions
PolymarketJun 25, 202647 days left

Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

This contract is priced at 47¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 27¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 40¢ spread.

Implied probability

47¢
$14 volume
$5K liquidity
59% of event volume

Event outcomes

3

Family volume

$24

Best sibling

Sweden 37¢

Ticker

0xe1bd581c…81f8

Market snapshot

Japan in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?. The displayed quote is 47¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $14. In the Japan vs. Sweden family, this outcome ranks #1 of 3 by current quote across 3 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC.

Outcome

Japan

Family rank

#1 of 3

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

47¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jun 25, 2026

Reported volume

$14

Family context

3 outcomes · Japan vs. Sweden

Quote range

35¢-47¢

Family leader

Japan 47¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC · 9m ago

Venue identifier: 0xe1bd581c13be7103749ca1a64d21230ed6693a162fc057d81e3d1e9237fc81f8. Family volume: $24.

Price history

47¢ current

12¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 3, 2026May 7, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

27 / 67¢

Polymarket
40¢ spread
BidSize
27¢50
26¢100
19¢100
18¢29
17¢53
15¢200
13¢69
12¢350
AskSize
67¢386
69¢4.5K
70¢69
76¢79
77¢39
78¢300
79¢6.6K
82¢200

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 25, 2026 If Japan wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 25, 2026

Identifier

0xe1bd581c…81f8

Event family

Japan vs. Sweden.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$24

Outcomes

3

Highest price

Japan 47¢

Current share

59%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

881.5%

IY (No)

693.2%

Adj IY

441%

CRI

1

Overround

0.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

881.5%
693.2%
Adj IY
441%
1
Overround
0.2%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Conceptmethodology

Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes

When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index