Japan vs. Sweden
Leader sits at 47% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Japan
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
Sweden
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$14
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
47 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Japan vs. Sweden
Analysis
This 59% probability indicates that Japan is currently the favored outcome in a three-way market comparing Japan's performance against Sweden and other teams. The market is pricing in Japan's historical competitive strength and recent form, though the relatively low trading volume ($52-$405 across related contracts) suggests modest liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads. Key factors shaping the odds include team composition changes, recent match results between these nations, weather conditions at the venue, and injury status of key players. The upcoming scheduled match between Japan and Sweden will directly resolve this uncertainty—the final outcome will confirm whether Japan maintained its competitive edge or if Sweden's performance exceeded market expectations. Until that fixture concludes, price movements will reflect shifts in pre-match analysis, team news, and betting flows from more active prediction markets.
- ›Japan's historical head-to-head record against Sweden in comparable tournaments or recent friendlies
- ›Recent form of both teams in official competitions leading up to this matchup
- ›Trading volume and spread disparities across related contracts suggest potential mispricings in the broader market
- ›Injury status or roster changes affecting key players for either Japan or Sweden
- ›The scheduled match date and any venue factors that could affect performance odds
What moved the line
- May 7Japan↓12pp59→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Draw (Japan vs. Sweden)↑5pp34→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Sweden↓4pp40→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Sweden↑3pp36→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Sweden↑3pp39→42¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.