Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
This contract is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 7¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
2
Family volume
$6.3M
Best sibling
June 30 12¢
Ticker
0xa1d97efb…dea1
Price history
8¢ current
−5¢Orderbook snapshot
7 / 8¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0xa1d97efb…dea1
Event family
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$6.3M
Outcomes
2
Highest price
June 30 12¢
Current share
69%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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