Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...
Leader sits at 12% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
May 31
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$141K
liquid
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Iran will lose control of Kharg Island—a major oil export hub in the Persian Gulf—by June 30, 2026. At 12%, traders assess this as unlikely within the next two months, suggesting confidence in the status quo or belief that any transition would take longer. The current pricing reflects geopolitical tensions, regional military capabilities, and Iran's strategic importance of the island. The main factors keeping the probability low are the substantial military resources required to seize and hold the island, and the absence of imminent military operations publicly signaled by potential actors. Resolution depends on actual control changes verified through credible reporting; any major escalation in Gulf tensions or explicit military action by regional or external powers could substantially shift expectations upward.
- ›Kharg Island currently hosts Iran's primary crude oil export terminal and is defended by Iranian naval and air assets; seizure would require sustained military capability and face significant logistical resistance
- ›No credible intelligence reports or official statements from regional or Western military sources indicate active plans or preparation for an operation against the island as of May 2026
- ›The May 31 contract trades at 8% versus June 30 at 12%, indicating markets price a near-zero probability of loss of control in the next 28 days specifically
- ›Recent precedent for control transitions in the region (e.g., islands or disputed territories) typically involves months of escalation or diplomatic signaling before any military action
- ›Any loss of control would require unambiguous third-party verification (military, news, or official sources) to resolve the contract, making accidental or temporary disruptions unlikely to trigger settlement
What moved the line
- May 2June 30↓9pp21→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↑6pp12→18¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓6pp18→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28June 30↑5pp16→21¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (12% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Military Operations Continue — Regime Stability at 8¢ for June, Oil Disruption Ongoing
The US military campaign against Iran continues with near-zero odds of operations ending in April (2¢) and only 33¢ for May. The Iranian regime itself is priced at 8¢ to fall by June 30, and Kharg Island seizure is at 12¢ for May 31. The Hormuz disruption is the key transmission mechanism to global markets.
Strait of Hormuz Normalization Reprices: May Contract Jumps +5¢ as Iran Tensions Evolve
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of May jumped +5¢ to 39¢ while the April contract expired at 0¢. This repricing suggests traders see meaningful probability of a US-Iran deal or de-escalation within the next month, with direct oil market implications.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.