Democratic Party to win KY-04 House Election
Democratic Party is priced at 11¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 10¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside KY-04 House Election Winner.
Price history
11¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Outcome
Democratic Party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Republican Party 90¢
Range
11¢-90¢
Family volume
$30K
Identifier
0xee7822fd...2aff
Jun 17, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · KY-04 House Election Winner
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$30K
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
0xee7822fd…2aff
Event family
KY-04 House Election Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$30K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Republican Party 90¢
Current share
21%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.