KY-04 House Election Winner
Leader sits at 90% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Republican Party
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Democratic Party
Spread
79pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
137 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
KY-04 House Election Winner
Analysis
The leading candidate in Kentucky's 4th congressional district is priced at a 91% probability of winning, indicating strong market confidence in their victory. This level reflects expectations about candidate viability, recent polling trends, and historical voting patterns in the district. The probability could move lower if new polling shows a competitive race, higher-than-expected opponent fundraising, or significant shifts in district sentiment. The main catalyst remains Election Day in November 2026, when actual voter preference will resolve the outcome. Market participants are weighing incumbent strength, demographic composition of the district, and typical partisan lean when pricing this contract.
- ›Kentucky's 4th district voting history and partisan lean compared to statewide/national trends
- ›Candidate quality, fundraising, and campaign organization as of mid-2026
- ›Current public polling data from the district, if available, versus implied probability
- ›Turnout expectations for a midterm election year and demographic shifts
- ›Potential for unexpected events (candidate withdrawals, scandals, or significant endorsements) between now and November 2026 election
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (90% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.