Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?

This market shows extreme volatility and illiquidity despite substantial open interest of $518K, with the price collapsing 36 cents over seven days (from 85¢ to 49¢) and a massive 50¢ bid-ask spread indicating thin trading. The astronomical implied yields (1382% for Yes, 1087% for No) and realized volatility of 2256% reflect the high uncertainty and information arrival rate of 3.9 signals per hour, though zero 24-hour volume suggests the market may be stalled or illiquid at current price levels. With only 30 days to the May 16 nomination deadline and a cliff risk index of 1, this market faces imminent resolution risk and should be approached cautiously given the disconnect between stated open interest and actual trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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