Will the White House Press Secretary say Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation at her next press briefing?

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83¢
Bid/Ask 81/85¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $563.19·OI $835.64·Closes May 7, 2026·17d remaining
KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-NEGO
7-day price138 snapshots · 9 regime
83¢81¢ current
Apr 162¢Apr 20

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 27-cent spread and astronomical implied yields exceeding 1500%, suggesting the pricing is largely theoretical rather than market-driven. The recent 7-day price surge from 2¢ to 54¢ followed by a collapse to 0¢ indicates high volatility and potential manipulation or data errors, particularly given the 2354% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 1. With only 21 days until expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.9 events per hour, the market appears to be waiting for the next press briefing to resolve, but the complete lack of liquidity makes this unsuitable for actual trading.

Resolution rules

If the White House Press Secretary says Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation at the next Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary (does not include gaggles), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.9%
IY (No) 9067.4%
Adj IY 8619%
CRI 4
RV 290%
VR 1.22
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)498.9%
IY (No)9067.4%
Adj IY8619%
CRI4
RV290%
VR1.22
IAR2.1/h
Overround9.4%
LAS0.05

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/20/2026, 10:19:10 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/20/2026, 10:08:20 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-NEGO yes 100

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