Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes

When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Prediction Markets Are Already Pricing the Post-Terminal-Value World

Why prediction markets are the native pricing instrument for a world where terminal value is collapsing. Causal models vs DCF, short-duration pricing, and what this means for traders.

Resolution Ambiguity Score: Quantifying Rule-Risk Per Market

A heuristic 0-10 score for the rule risk on a prediction market, based on edge case count, venue dispute history, and source-of-truth specificity. The pre-trade discipline that catches Polymarket UMA disputes and Kalshi rule-mismatches before they catch you.