SimpleFunctions
PolymarketJun 30, 202657 days left

Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?

This contract is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 3¢ spread.

Implied probability

4¢
$246K volume
$11K liquidity
100% of event volume

Event outcomes

1

Family volume

$246K

Best sibling

Ticker

0x61af02c9…2799

Price history

4¢ current

2¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 9, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 6¢

Polymarket
3¢ spread
BidSize
100¢500
100¢275
3¢80
3¢59
2¢397
2¢33
0¢91K
0¢3.0K
AskSize
6¢117
10¢167
10¢57
19¢11
19¢10
19¢15
25¢200
25¢322

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

Zohran Mamdani has proposed creating city owned grocery stores to combat rising prices (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/nyregion/grocery-stores-city-owned.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. The City of New York implements a policy under which at least one grocery store that is city-owned and operated is actively open to the public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The policy will be considered to have been implemented if at least one such store is open for regular grocery retail sales to the public by the resolution date. The enactment or announcement of a policy without an operational, open store will not alone qualify. Policies that are blocked, cancelled, or not yet in effect by the resolution date will similarly not qualify. Limited pilots, studies, planning initiatives, or temporary pop-up markets which don’t regularly operate as regular grocery stores do not qualify. Partnerships which include partial city ownership will qualify as long as the store is substantively under City of New York control. Partnerships with non-profit or other operators which don’t include direct city ownership of the store will not qualify. Only stores that are initiated, approved, or opened during Zohran Mamdani’s mayoralty and that are described in credible reporting or official City communications as part of the “city-owned grocery store” initiative associated with his campaign platform will qualify. Grocery stores created by previous or subsequent administrations, or any other government-run or subsidized retail programs that are not reasonably attributable to the Mamdani administration’s city-owned grocery store policy, will not qualify. If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x61af02c9…2799

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at 79¢, -75¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

This market.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$246K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30 4¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

15330.8%
26.6%
Adj IY
1916%
24
LAS
0.75

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Blogmacro

US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle

Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index