Manchester United vs Liverpool Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Manchester United vs Liverpool Winner?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme distortion with a 30¢ price on Liverpool generating a 2434% annualized yield, while the 27¢ spread represents 90% of the contract value—indicating severe illiquidity with only $175.33 open interest across 28 days to expiry.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distortion with a 30¢ price on Liverpool generating a 2434% annualized yield, while the 27¢ spread represents 90% of the contract value—indicating severe illiquidity with only $175.33 open interest across 28 days to expiry. The 7¢ price jump over seven days combined with 1887% realized volatility and a 2.97 vol ratio suggests either a recent catalyst (likely the original May 3 match date passing) or thin-book dynamics rather than genuine probability repricing, making this contract unreliable for fair-value assessment.
Resolution rules
If Liverpool wins the Manchester United vs Liverpool professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 3, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY03MUNLFC-LFC yes 100