Manchester United vs Liverpool Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Manchester United vs Liverpool Winner?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility indicators that suggest it may not be functioning as a reliable price discovery mechanism.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility indicators that suggest it may not be functioning as a reliable price discovery mechanism. With only $5 in 24-hour volume and $2 open interest against a massive 53¢ spread and 2360% implied yield on the Yes side, the 40¢ price appears disconnected from fundamental soccer odds—Manchester United typically trades around 35-45% to win against Liverpool, but the realized volatility of 16,410% and vol ratio of 8.55 indicate wild price swings unmoored from information flow (only 0.2 info arrivals per hour). The sharp 7-day decline from 50¢ to 35¢ combined with 29 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 2 suggests this is a thin, speculative micro-market where small trades create outsized price movements rather than reflecting genuine probability shifts.
Resolution rules
If Manchester United wins the Manchester United vs Liverpool professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 3, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY03MUNLFC-MUN yes 100