Global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026
1.20–1.24ºC is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 6 inside May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC).
Price history
1¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Outcome
1.20–1.24ºC
Rank
#4 of 6
Leader
1.10–1.14ºC 73¢
Range
0¢-73¢
Family volume
$125K
Identifier
0x5a3f3af5...443d
May 26, 2026, 10:58 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#4 of 6
6 outcomes · May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
Family volume
$125K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
Identifier
0x5a3f3af5…443d
Event family
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC).
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$125K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
1.10–1.14ºC 73¢
Current share
13%
1.10–1.14ºC
polymarket · 0x0a29ccbbe71b87570c2c3feae6be0c42963c15e26e4dd46ccb0aa4f9d269a1bd
<1.10ºC
polymarket · 0x92527d75831fd332928f57940e9b5d579c0c8752e63826a23195e152f34cdcdc
1.15–1.19ºC
polymarket · 0x8a058b72ba812fcfa928fd9ff7a35ab0ad03a3eb5afc14ca0dd01e59f76c35fc
1.20–1.24ºC
polymarket · 0x5a3f3af566a68bcab1e2bc6574afeef5d7e5176f4d3ae92c39da9e0f1b17443d
>1.29ºC
polymarket · 0x556163092fdb495e7a02704f01691bbe6494d2dbf6e2341b07433d83f3953cb8
1.25–1.29ºC
polymarket · 0x7e47021f7c192faa366f5e0df714ce6b82d084d0097732aa7d1ae9774445aef3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.