Global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026
<1.10ºC is priced at 18¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 16¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC).
Price history
18¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Outcome
<1.10ºC
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
1.10–1.14ºC 78¢
Range
0¢-78¢
Family volume
$141K
Identifier
0x92527d75...dcdc
May 28, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
Family volume
$141K
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
Identifier
0x92527d75…dcdc
Event family
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC).
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$141K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
1.10–1.14ºC 78¢
Current share
29%
1.10–1.14ºC
polymarket · 0x0a29ccbbe71b87570c2c3feae6be0c42963c15e26e4dd46ccb0aa4f9d269a1bd
<1.10ºC
polymarket · 0x92527d75831fd332928f57940e9b5d579c0c8752e63826a23195e152f34cdcdc
1.15–1.19ºC
polymarket · 0x8a058b72ba812fcfa928fd9ff7a35ab0ad03a3eb5afc14ca0dd01e59f76c35fc
>1.29ºC
polymarket · 0x556163092fdb495e7a02704f01691bbe6494d2dbf6e2341b07433d83f3953cb8
1.20–1.24ºC
polymarket · 0x5a3f3af566a68bcab1e2bc6574afeef5d7e5176f4d3ae92c39da9e0f1b17443d
1.25–1.29ºC
polymarket · 0x7e47021f7c192faa366f5e0df714ce6b82d084d0097732aa7d1ae9774445aef3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.