Global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026
1.10–1.14ºC is priced at 78¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 76¢ bid, 80¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC).
Price history
78¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Outcome
1.10–1.14ºC
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
1.10–1.14ºC 78¢
Range
0¢-78¢
Family volume
$141K
Identifier
0x0a29ccbb...a1bd
May 28, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
76¢
Ask
80¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
Family volume
$141K
Orderbook snapshot
76 / 80¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
Identifier
0x0a29ccbb…a1bd
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 52¢, +26¢ versus this page.
Event family
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC).
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$141K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
1.10–1.14ºC 78¢
Current share
13%
1.10–1.14ºC
polymarket · 0x0a29ccbbe71b87570c2c3feae6be0c42963c15e26e4dd46ccb0aa4f9d269a1bd
<1.10ºC
polymarket · 0x92527d75831fd332928f57940e9b5d579c0c8752e63826a23195e152f34cdcdc
1.15–1.19ºC
polymarket · 0x8a058b72ba812fcfa928fd9ff7a35ab0ad03a3eb5afc14ca0dd01e59f76c35fc
>1.29ºC
polymarket · 0x556163092fdb495e7a02704f01691bbe6494d2dbf6e2341b07433d83f3953cb8
1.20–1.24ºC
polymarket · 0x5a3f3af566a68bcab1e2bc6574afeef5d7e5176f4d3ae92c39da9e0f1b17443d
1.25–1.29ºC
polymarket · 0x7e47021f7c192faa366f5e0df714ce6b82d084d0097732aa7d1ae9774445aef3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks: Liquidity, Spread, and When to Enter
How to read prediction market orderbooks on Kalshi. Covers bid-ask spread analysis, liquidity scoring, executable edge calculation, and when thin markets are opportunities vs traps.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Cross-Venue Convergence Dynamics: Why Kalshi and Polymarket Converge — and When They Don't
Why the same outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket usually trades within 2-5 cents — and the three specific things that cause the gap to widen. Diagnostic guide and worked convergence trade.
When the Orderbook Is Empty, You Have Information
An empty orderbook is not missing data. It is one of two specific stories — and the second story is the most reliable maker setup I have found on Polymarket.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 78% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.