SimpleFunctions

Rushern Baker III to win MD-05 Democratic Primary

Rushern Baker III is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner.

Open on PolymarketView JSONEnter terminal

Price history

8¢ current

−38¢
0¢25¢50¢
May 17, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome

Rushern Baker III

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

Adrian Boafo 68¢

Range

0¢-68¢

Family volume

$15K

Identifier

0xab5063a0...0544

May 27, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 8m ago

Implied probability

8¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 8m ago

Bid

5¢

Ask

15¢

Spread

10¢

Reported volume

$2K

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner

Closes

Jun 23, 2026

Family volume

$15K

Orderbook snapshot

5 / 15¢

Polymarket
10¢ spread
BidSize
100¢74
5¢200
4¢200
0¢1.7K
0¢900
0¢200
AskSize
15¢17
23¢10
23¢30
24¢363
58¢5
58¢45
59¢363
59¢24

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 23, 2026

Identifier

0xab5063a0…0544

SF Signal
SF Index
15880.37
Regime
neutral

Event family

MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$15K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Adrian Boafo 68¢

Current share

12%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Adrian Boafo

polymarket · 0x9468419631bad2d636e689fc04058df3d2989e29a15294483d3774d37ec2ee7f

68¢
$2K$210.1

Quincy Bareebe

polymarket · 0xdcac98df937cc0a1dec9eb47a5a9873e2ca497f68941169f7f171a1a83d29a9c

31¢
$972$0—

Harry Dunn

polymarket · 0x851531bd074b8a6724037b28bea9a762b99cb5ccaa166965a94c024b047aa9f6

18¢
$2K$00.2

Rushern Baker III

polymarket · 0xab5063a09129f65ca40748c2636e6e88407034c51a58e4fb975dd0dd51710544

8¢
$2K$0—

Wala Blegay

polymarket · 0x2b021d15d7474a40e4da0e01a52861a3a73539ef7543dc68d5b08885e6ab3e29

3¢
$959$00.3

Nicole Williams

polymarket · 0x2596e4f2d8fb9779479038bcbf77929cdbf9e4dae1319fccd8d15f3ed7eb8c63

1¢
$1K$0—

Elldwnia English

polymarket · 0x7d1e2b2f9a54530249b247632fad4f4ce06f9c2d5c0a9fa622a11c2c966b151c

0¢
$915$0—

Harry Jarin

polymarket · 0x32b4104aff019dbad62ba1c8f6276c0b153220495d59a48d4e8f471d72c5d9c0

0¢
$776$0—

Kenneth Simons

polymarket · 0xd888b090433cdb1e04fbba90355d854584e7c3d13ab95b5f761264347b1a08da

0¢
$601$0—

James Makle Jr.

polymarket · 0x9d8e07dce70a1348f9dc063ef5f7a71ad449d9da9d493d9c693cce1ebaf090de

0¢
$600$0—

Tracy Starr

polymarket · 0x76dfdec6279648a37a44ae218bde761a6cfc7c49a899d964eaf8e4f58051401e

0¢
$580$0—

Keith Salkowski

polymarket · 0xc5cae6a9ec5936f604a863f7f1062c8a8e51e8328989855baa28f5cc50616ae5

0¢
$547$0—

Harold Tolbert

polymarket · 0x797d6628ae3d080068cb5a50710d530b59f8384729155f1199e85df9807f38b8

0¢
$535$0—

Heather Luper

polymarket · 0x055efab5370939450ee81e2dc2cbb5dd7132288b4b2ad158eacdd5637c7435c3

0¢
$522$0—

Leigha Messick

polymarket · 0x11338ab0a1b3d6212efb91c6306f72640b741cd1e5405ef4feeb997b91c60806

0¢
$508$0—

Dave Sundberg

polymarket · 0x5c7d074bbaa976fce871d496dde63b8a9298dca8b79a67d4a83d62856fbebeac

0¢
$489$0—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

15880.4%

IY (No)

120.1%

Adj IY

15880%

CRI

12

RV

2506%

VR

2.24

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)
15880.4%
IY (No)
120.1%
Adj IY
15880%
CRI
12
RV
2506%
VR
2.24
IAR
0.7/h
Overround
0.3%

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogpolitics

US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress

A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.

Event Probability API

Read 8% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.

World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

Hedging Workflows

Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.