Harry Dunn to win MD-05 Democratic Primary
Harry Dunn is priced at 16¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 16¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner.
Price history
16¢ current
−14¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
Harry Dunn
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Adrian Boafo 68¢
Range
0¢-68¢
Family volume
$15K
Identifier
0x851531bd...a9f6
May 27, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$9
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
Family volume
$15K
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
Identifier
0x851531bd…a9f6
Event family
MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$15K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Adrian Boafo 68¢
Current share
12%
Adrian Boafo
polymarket · 0x9468419631bad2d636e689fc04058df3d2989e29a15294483d3774d37ec2ee7f
Quincy Bareebe
polymarket · 0xdcac98df937cc0a1dec9eb47a5a9873e2ca497f68941169f7f171a1a83d29a9c
Harry Dunn
polymarket · 0x851531bd074b8a6724037b28bea9a762b99cb5ccaa166965a94c024b047aa9f6
Rushern Baker III
polymarket · 0xab5063a09129f65ca40748c2636e6e88407034c51a58e4fb975dd0dd51710544
Wala Blegay
polymarket · 0x2b021d15d7474a40e4da0e01a52861a3a73539ef7543dc68d5b08885e6ab3e29
Nicole Williams
polymarket · 0x2596e4f2d8fb9779479038bcbf77929cdbf9e4dae1319fccd8d15f3ed7eb8c63
Elldwnia English
polymarket · 0x7d1e2b2f9a54530249b247632fad4f4ce06f9c2d5c0a9fa622a11c2c966b151c
Harry Jarin
polymarket · 0x32b4104aff019dbad62ba1c8f6276c0b153220495d59a48d4e8f471d72c5d9c0
Kenneth Simons
polymarket · 0xd888b090433cdb1e04fbba90355d854584e7c3d13ab95b5f761264347b1a08da
James Makle Jr.
polymarket · 0x9d8e07dce70a1348f9dc063ef5f7a71ad449d9da9d493d9c693cce1ebaf090de
Tracy Starr
polymarket · 0x76dfdec6279648a37a44ae218bde761a6cfc7c49a899d964eaf8e4f58051401e
Keith Salkowski
polymarket · 0xc5cae6a9ec5936f604a863f7f1062c8a8e51e8328989855baa28f5cc50616ae5
Harold Tolbert
polymarket · 0x797d6628ae3d080068cb5a50710d530b59f8384729155f1199e85df9807f38b8
Heather Luper
polymarket · 0x055efab5370939450ee81e2dc2cbb5dd7132288b4b2ad158eacdd5637c7435c3
Leigha Messick
polymarket · 0x11338ab0a1b3d6212efb91c6306f72640b741cd1e5405ef4feeb997b91c60806
Dave Sundberg
polymarket · 0x5c7d074bbaa976fce871d496dde63b8a9298dca8b79a67d4a83d62856fbebeac
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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