What is the current probability for "Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 81¢ (81% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 19 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 498.3% and 7051.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 81% probability that Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans winner?. This contract trades at 81¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026.

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81¢mid

Bid/Ask 79/82¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 17, 2026·19d remaining

KXAFLGAME-26MAY030115MELSYD-SYD

7-day price27 snapshots · 9 regime

80¢79¢ current

Apr 273¢Apr 27

Resolution rules

If Sydney Swans wins the Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans professional AFL game originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.3%

IY (No) 7051.3%

Adj IY 6783%

CRI 4

RV 28032%

VR 18.64

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7051.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	6783%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	28032%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	18.64	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/27/2026, 5:48:43 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/27/2026, 5:53:55 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAFLGAME-26MAY030115MELSYD-SYD yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →