What is the current probability for "Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 46¢ (46% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 252 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 170.2% and 123.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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46¢

Bid/Ask 43/49¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $390.86·OI $12,645.909·Closes Jan 1, 2027·252d remaining

0xa38e1f6fe19c46d8117d4fb41662008d856d99e8b578d25b661b0e9361d84694

7-day price242 snapshots · 18 regime

52¢45¢ current

Apr 835¢Apr 24

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 170.2%

IY (No) 123.5%

Adj IY 170%

CRI 1

RV 760%

VR 5.95

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	170.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	123.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	170%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	760%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.95	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 7:53:47 AM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 7:38:16 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa38e1f6fe19c46d8117d4fb41662008d856d99e8b578d25b661b0e9361d84694 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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