Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 5.00% and 5.49%?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing January 8, 2027. This Mexico inflation band market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $358k open interest, and a massive 46¢ spread indicating thin order books on both sides.
Analysis
This Mexico inflation band market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $358k open interest, and a massive 46¢ spread indicating thin order books on both sides. The Yes position at 25¢ offers an extraordinary 389.5% implied yield, but this likely reflects the wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine opportunity—the realized volatility of 767% and vol ratio of 3.74 suggest highly unstable pricing rather than fundamental uncertainty. With 267 days to resolution and the market having declined from 31¢ to 25¢ over seven days, this appears to be a low-conviction, illiquid position where the headline yield masks poor execution conditions.
Resolution rules
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
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Trade
sf trade 0x90c03947fd07e7116f2dba601a3e6601f1a0c057ef4b8e3f336371574a81f824 yes 100