William Lawrence to win MI-07 Democratic Primary
William Lawrence is priced at 20¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 12¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 7 inside MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner.
Price history
20¢ current
−26¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
William Lawrence
Rank
#2 of 7
Leader
Bridget Brink 75¢
Range
0¢-75¢
Family volume
$13K
Identifier
0xef7feb06...6ac0
May 25, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#2 of 7
7 outcomes · MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
Family volume
$13K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
Identifier
0xef7feb06…6ac0
Event family
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Bridget Brink 75¢
Current share
49%
Bridget Brink
polymarket · 0xd2d7b77caa7e513dc8ad74c0c4c66acfbaa7384d79f5d0e4bb4f88666ac3b496
William Lawrence
polymarket · 0xef7feb067decb2706989f0564f6c283475f08f7496d1c8982a7c7e8555156ac0
Matt Maasdam
polymarket · 0x2f9712ddd3ca1ca5a94539cd9b72212fa6365c566612fbd62b123985bceb854e
Elyon Badger
polymarket · 0x28b060c7894022b2b706be95140e1a31138febef5ea9f5cfc5ead8ecacd87a56
Josh Cowen
polymarket · 0x4bf69008f3001f6547b74c50f7953958b2d1d85bcc7d1e6ca0088ac1995231c2
Muhammad Salman Rais
polymarket · 0xc3e6d400981facf9b90349253209c70607f6cfa50e26250429b69da6a7999f08
Alexandra Prieditis
polymarket · 0x1b0d48db53d286731be8004f1ae474b62d811dc8452d6bb43143119ccb055586
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.