MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 73% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Bridget Brink
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
William Lawrence
Spread
57pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
71 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Bridget Brink
0xd2d7b7…b496
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner: William Lawrence
0xef7feb…6ac0
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Matt Maasdam
0x2f9712…854e
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Muhammad Salman Rais
0xc3e6d4…9f08
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Josh Cowen
0x4bf690…31c2
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Elyon Badger
0x28b060…7a56
What moved the line
- May 25Bridget Brink↑21pp52→73¢ · Polymarket
- May 25William Lawrence↓19pp36→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Bridget Brink↑14pp38→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 20Matt Maasdam↑10pp6→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 24William Lawrence↓9pp45→36¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85¢ for House, Texas Turning Purple
Democrats hold a commanding 85¢ price for House control while the Senate remains a toss-up; Texas shows surprising weakness with anti-tariff sentiment reshaping traditional Republican strongholds.
2026 House Race Tightens: Democrats slip 5¢, Republicans gain 3¢
Democratic odds to win the House fell 5¢ to 78¢ on Polymarket, while Republican odds rose 3¢ to 22¢ on Kalshi. The shift was driven by new polling showing improved Republican performance in swing districts. The generic ballot vote share is also tightening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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