What is the current probability for "Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 82¢ (82% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 17 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 499.5% and 9078.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $25 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 88¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 8¢ spread.

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82¢

Bid/Ask 81/88¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $27.75·Closes May 17, 2026·17d remaining

KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-HAM

7-day price6 snapshots · 3 regime

83¢81¢ current

Apr 2681¢Apr 28

Analysis

13d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $25 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 88¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 8¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—277.6% for Yes versus 5045.9% for No—suggest severe mispricing, with the No side offering an extraordinarily high yield that reflects the market's illiquidity rather than genuine probability. With 31 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this contract carries meaningful execution risk, and traders should demand substantial liquidity premiums before committing capital to either side.

Resolution rules

If Lewis Hamilton finishes in the top 10 in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.5%

IY (No) 9078.5%

Adj IY 4147%

CRI 4

Overround 8.6%

LAS 0.09

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9078.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4147%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	8.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.09	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.636

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 6:38:35 PM

Observability directEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 6:38:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-HAM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →