What is the current probability for "Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 20 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 29239.3% and 119.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This illiquid micro-market on Pierre Gasly's top-5 finish at Miami shows extreme pricing distortion with a 7¢ bid-ask spread and only $107 open interest generating a nonsensical 15,709% implied yield on the Yes side.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 6/12¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $424.55·Closes May 17, 2026·20d remaining

KXF1TOP5-MIAGP26-GAS

7-day price6 snapshots · 11 regime

8¢6¢ current

Apr 115¢Apr 21

Analysis

11d ago

This illiquid micro-market on Pierre Gasly's top-5 finish at Miami shows extreme pricing distortion with a 7¢ bid-ask spread and only $107 open interest generating a nonsensical 15,709% implied yield on the Yes side. The contract has experienced zero 24-hour volume and declined 1¢ over seven days, suggesting the 14¢ price may not reflect genuine probability but rather stale quotes in a market too thin to trade meaningfully. With 31 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, this represents a speculative position rather than a reliable prediction vehicle.

Resolution rules

If Pierre Gasly finishes in the top 5 in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 29239.3%

IY (No) 119.1%

Adj IY 14620%

CRI 16

Overround 3.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	29239.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	119.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	14620%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 8:53:16 AM

Indicators computed 4/28/2026, 8:38:26 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXF1TOP5-MIAGP26-GAS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →