Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
This contract is priced at 47¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 37¢ bid, 57¢ ask, 20¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
7
Family volume
$35K
Best sibling
4.0-4.2m sq km 14¢
Ticker
0xa776ef6b…590c
Market snapshot
<4m sq km in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?. The displayed quote is 47¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $44. In the Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer? family, this outcome ranks #1 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
<4m sq km
Family rank
#1 of 7
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
47¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Oct 1, 2026
24h volume
$44
Family context
7 outcomes · Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Quote range
1¢-47¢
Family leader
<4m sq km 47¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 0m ago
Venue identifier: 0xa776ef6b16f785ca718dfaf177743793acda4ee06c721253b868831f5089590c. Family volume: $35K.
Price history
47¢ current
−5¢Orderbook snapshot
37 / 57¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
0xa776ef6b…590c
Event family
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$35K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
<4m sq km 47¢
Current share
71%
<4m sq km
polymarket · 0xa776ef6b16f785ca718dfaf177743793acda4ee06c721253b868831f5089590c
4.0-4.2m sq km
polymarket · 0xa185967aec34ff498a0c8c99c5819ae02f0402a2ba568016a9ad1fac75627099
4.6-4.8m sq km
polymarket · 0x2b4c48fee6abf0782b1b9e3f4388f32b028d559e34dbad32c7755c9265514e7c
5m+ sq km
polymarket · 0x7dafab1697c0d44a23a28756f18411222eeae558a144640164ff3a5c8eb3818d
4.4-4.6m sq km
polymarket · 0x1454f7aabd1736d276e3a16c9d3840d5a0f31b15162e92602825db3f27c89f9c
4.2-4.4m sq km
polymarket · 0x4c3dcf02d9c59d91b45c6d1d2005b5727587aa8071c02271f89fef4b3bfb38ad
4.8-5m sq km
polymarket · 0x71893b06b5e12945bbd8723ab419be96957314e596ed9e971551a4a93165d994
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
unknown
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