Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Leader sits at 47% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
<4m sq km
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
4.0-4.2m sq km
Spread
33pp
contested
24h volume
$93
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
145 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?: 4.6-4.8m sq km
0x2b4c48…4e7c
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?: <4m sq km
0xa776ef…590c
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?: 4.4-4.6m sq km
0x1454f7…9f9c
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?: 4.0-4.2m sq km
0xa18596…7099
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?: 4.2-4.4m sq km
0x4c3dcf…38ad
Analysis
This contract predicts that the Arctic's minimum sea ice extent this summer will fall between 4.2 and 4.4 million square kilometers. Currently priced at 44% on Polymarket, this outcome sits between the 4.0–4.2m range (33%) and represents the modal expectation among traders. Arctic sea ice extent depends primarily on spring and early-summer air temperatures, ocean warmth, and atmospheric circulation patterns. The key catalyst is the seasonal minimum measurement, typically recorded in mid-September, which depends on conditions from now through late summer. Factors driving the current pricing include recent ice-tracking data through May, seasonal climate forecasts from NOAA and other agencies, and historical trends showing multi-year oscillations in minimum extent. The contract will resolve based on satellite observations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) or equivalent authoritative source.
- ›Current Arctic sea ice extent as of early May 2026 relative to recent 5–10-year average and historical trends
- ›Spring and early-summer air temperatures in the Arctic and adjacent regions, measurable via reanalysis data and weather forecasts
- ›Sea surface temperatures in ice-marginal zones, which influence melt rates from June through August
- ›Arctic Oscillation and other large-scale atmospheric circulation modes that affect wind patterns and ice transport
- ›NOAA seasonal climate outlook and model ensemble forecasts for northern-hemisphere summer conditions
What moved the line
- May 64.0-4.2m sq km↓16pp33→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 6<4m sq km↑12pp38→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 74.6-4.8m sq km↓8pp15→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 64.6-4.8m sq km↑7pp8→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 24.0-4.2m sq km↑6pp23→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.