Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win more than 81.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

31¢

Bid/Ask 12/49¢·Spread 37¢·Vol $20·OI $756.479·Closes Oct 5, 2026·170d remaining

0xa6e830a2b39949524c58e7ab4977e992a3463a0c36e63f6bab44e0f531092180

7-day price230 snapshots · 4 regime

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.82Close-time delta 254h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "O 81.5" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win more than 81.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Arizona Diamondbacks to record more than 81.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 81.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 476.9%

IY (No) 96.3%

Adj IY 477%

CRI 2

RV 512%

VR 2.16

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	476.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	96.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	477%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	512%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.16	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	13.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

37¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 3:14:16 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 3:08:52 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa6e830a2b39949524c58e7ab4977e992a3463a0c36e63f6bab44e0f531092180 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →