Will the Philadelphia Phillies win more than 87.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $449.7K open interest, suggesting trapped capital and a highly illiquid position. The 57¢ spread is exceptionally wide, and the 499% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or distressed positioning, though the neutral regime and modest realized volatility of 222% suggest the market hasn't yet repriced this disconnect. With 171 days to expiry and the Phillies needing to exceed 87.5 wins (a below-average threshold for a competitive team), the 30¢ price appears pessimistic, but the lack of trading activity and cross-venue data gap (Kalshi showing null) prevent confident arbitrage opportunities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "O 87.5" if the Philadelphia Phillies win more than 87.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Philadelphia Phillies to record more than 87.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 87.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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