Will the St. Louis Cardinals win more than 75.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

The Cardinals over-75.5-wins market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $770k open interest, and the 35¢ spread is notably wide for a binary contract. The Yes position's 249.5% implied yield is exceptionally high—suggesting either severe underpricing or significant tail risk that the market is pricing in, though the neutral regime score indicates no obvious directional bias. With 172 days until expiry and the price having jumped 58% over seven days (from 29¢ to 46¢), this appears to be an emerging or thinly-traded market where large positions could create outsized moves.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "O 75.5" if the St. Louis Cardinals win more than 75.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the St. Louis Cardinals to record more than 75.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 75.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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