Chris Stigall to win MO-06 Republican Primary
Chris Stigall is priced at 69¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 68¢ bid, 69¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside MO-06 Republican Primary Winner.
Price history
69¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
Chris Stigall
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
Chris Stigall 69¢
Range
4¢-69¢
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
0xbeaf469d...4f98
May 29, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
68¢
Ask
69¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$50
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · MO-06 Republican Primary Winner
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
68 / 69¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
Identifier
0xbeaf469d…4f98
Event family
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Chris Stigall 69¢
Current share
53%
Chris Stigall
polymarket · 0xbeaf469ddc59c3aea0d6c7690eb70b69e3077a9d059f79859130636993ca4f98
Nathan Willett
polymarket · 0x8d8d1461ff08b5f5bb02c7ab88bc02d0e793b6abc993811b5e1d22b9fcdfb46b
Nathanael Schultz
polymarket · 0x4168c55800f52740c0ca9c326569455ecd66075071e2825f4f4938bed2fafff4
Gena Ross
polymarket · 0x816a3b7e3578a9722936a19cdde7bad1c86dd4600bea5d4da1c4a7bc7b35f1f4
Cody Oshel
polymarket · 0x52cebfd04081f15d7eed10d9be27657ba4392d5eba5fb4856f9eff06b8e3143c
James Ingram
polymarket · 0x24df8884fc389832c40b97248fdd5b7ff77d8044ba7a4919814d8e9d0ee88e67
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.