MO-06 Republican Primary Winner
Leader sits at 69% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Chris Stigall
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Nathan Willett
Spread
49pp
contested
24h volume
$125
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
67 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: Nathan Willett
0x8d8d14…b46b
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: Chris Stigall
0xbeaf46…4f98
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: Gena Ross
0x816a3b…f1f4
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: Cody Oshel
0x52cebf…143c
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: Nathanael Schultz
0x4168c5…fff4
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner: James Ingram
0x24df88…8e67
Analysis
This probability indicates that Chris Stigall is considered the frontrunner to win the Republican primary for Missouri's 6th Congressional District, with markets assigning him roughly a 2-in-3 chance. The current odds likely reflect Stigall's name recognition, fundraising position, or endorsements relative to other candidates in the field. The probability could shift based on debate performance, campaign spending data, polling releases, or changes in candidate viability—particularly if a second-tier candidate consolidates support or if new information emerges about frontrunner strength. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this outcome, with the winner determined by actual voting results. Markets pricing multiple candidates between 4-14% suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether Stigall maintains his lead through the primary process.
- ›Stigall maintains 69% implied probability versus nearest competitor at 14%, indicating but not guaranteeing frontrunner status
- ›Nathan Willett holds second position at 12%, suggesting a two-candidate competition scenario is priced into markets
- ›Polymarket contracts show minimal 24-hour trading volume except Willett ($116), indicating low liquidity and wider bid-ask spreads for most outcomes
- ›Six candidates priced between 4-69% reflects fragmented field where consolidation events could rapidly reprrice probabilities
- ›Missouri's 6th District primary election date will serve as resolution event, with results determining actual winner versus market forecast accuracy
What moved the line
- May 25Nathan Willett↓4pp16→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Nathan Willett↑4pp13→17¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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