Montreal vs New York City Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 1% probability that Montreal vs New York City Winner?. This contract trades at 1¢ on Kalshi, closing April 25, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $23.97 in 24-hour volume matching its total open interest, creating severe pricing risk despite the modest 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $23.97 in 24-hour volume matching its total open interest, creating severe pricing risk despite the modest 6¢ spread. The astronomical implied yield of 3397% on the Yes side signals either a deeply mispriced tail event or insufficient liquidity to support meaningful position sizing, compounded by realized volatility of 1838% over the contract's 21-day remaining life. The negligible 1¢ price movement over seven days contradicts the extreme volatility metrics, suggesting the market may be experiencing low-frequency, high-impact information arrivals (0.5/hour) rather than continuous repricing.
Resolution rules
If New York City wins the Montreal vs New York City professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR25MTLNYC-NYC yes 100