Ryan Busse to win MT-01 Democratic Primary
Ryan Busse is priced at 90¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 86¢ bid, 93¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside MT-01 Democratic Primary Winner.
Price history
90¢ current
+25¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
Ryan Busse
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Ryan Busse 90¢
Range
0¢-90¢
Family volume
$8K
Identifier
0x8b704423...dc0a
May 28, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
86¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$624
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · MT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Family volume
$8K
Orderbook snapshot
86 / 93¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Identifier
0x8b704423…dc0a
Event family
MT-01 Democratic Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Ryan Busse 90¢
Current share
39%
Ryan Busse
polymarket · 0x8b704423ac73928245d8d76766d85a5f914a7ed07012d01cf7c3e31a7eeedc0a
Samuel Forstag
polymarket · 0x67817d1cc4b72e5ba8cc9437f4cb979fc30898b1d5042f72bc770b9fc757768a
Russell Cleveland
polymarket · 0x6ee30d7966cfce5637d49ae35d2b95888d3b1529b030efca4593acd5997d324b
Matt Rains
polymarket · 0x45693b592d4d3b5f7914139c2c7e6230f3fbef432e7c2def823c536cb88a2004
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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