MT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 79% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ryan Busse
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Samuel Forstag
Spread
62pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$307
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
8 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
What moved the line
- May 22Russell Cleveland↓12pp21→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 19Samuel Forstag↓11pp30→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 19Russell Cleveland↑11pp6→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Ryan Busse↑9pp65→74¢ · Polymarket
- May 20Russell Cleveland↑5pp17→22¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Alabamalast 49% · 0d
- Will Steve Gooch be the Republican nominee for Lt. Governor in Georgialast 26% · 0d
- Will Richard Wright be the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor in Georgialast 47% · 0d
- Dublin-Central By-Election Winnerlast 95% · 0d
- Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winnerlast 80% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85¢ for House, Texas Turning Purple
Democrats hold a commanding 85¢ price for House control while the Senate remains a toss-up; Texas shows surprising weakness with anti-tariff sentiment reshaping traditional Republican strongholds.
2026 House Race Tightens: Democrats slip 5¢, Republicans gain 3¢
Democratic odds to win the House fell 5¢ to 78¢ on Polymarket, while Republican odds rose 3¢ to 22¢ on Kalshi. The shift was driven by new polling showing improved Republican performance in swing districts. The generic ballot vote share is also tightening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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