Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?
This contract is priced at 66¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 46¢ bid, 85¢ ask, 39¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$103
Best sibling
New Zealand 12¢
Ticker
0xd01a16e5…bbf4
Market snapshot
Belgium in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?. The displayed quote is 66¢ from the latest venue quote. In the New Zealand vs. Belgium family, this outcome ranks #1 of 3 by current quote across 3 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 8:53 AM UTC.
Outcome
Belgium
Family rank
#1 of 3
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
66¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jun 27, 2026
Reported volume
—
Family context
3 outcomes · New Zealand vs. Belgium
Quote range
12¢-66¢
Family leader
Belgium 66¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 8:53 AM UTC · 14m ago
Venue identifier: 0xd01a16e5adf6934d12c7a0e9875332356f74289ae6652a57aacb853e252fbbf4. Family volume: $103.
Price history
66¢ current
+11¢Orderbook snapshot
46 / 85¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 26, 2026 If Belgium wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
Identifier
0xd01a16e5…bbf4
Event family
New Zealand vs. Belgium.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$103
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Belgium 66¢
Current share
0%
Belgium
polymarket · 0xd01a16e5adf6934d12c7a0e9875332356f74289ae6652a57aacb853e252fbbf4
New Zealand
polymarket · 0x6c3c1eb9055cf4ff809b8d4f26a8ef56e11e17c184da687353927de474615746
Draw (New Zealand vs. Belgium)
polymarket · 0xf6fe0dfcb5be2f8e961972059e42700713164673bc7463a28d029602b5e3df18
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
New Market Price Formation: The First 24 Hours of a Listed Contract
When a binary contract first lists, the price moves through four phases: maker seeding, discovery flow, tentative consensus, stable pricing. Trading rules and the maker opportunity in phases 1 and 2.
The Overround Illusion: Why EE > 0 Isn't Free Money
Event Overround at +0.06 looks like a 6% guaranteed return. After fees and slippage, the trade is usually negative. The interesting use of EE is changes over time, not the raw level.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes
When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 66% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.