New Zealand vs. Belgium
Leader sits at 65% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Belgium
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Draw (New Zealand vs. Belgiu
Spread
39pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
49 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
New Zealand vs. Belgium
Analysis
This 56% probability indicates markets assess New Zealand as the moderate favorite in this three-outcome matchup, reflecting a significant but not overwhelming edge. The current pricing likely reflects New Zealand's recent diplomatic positioning and economic stability relative to Belgium's current conditions. Movement in this probability would depend primarily on near-term geopolitical developments or policy announcements from either nation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's May decision carries particular weight, as markets currently price a 74% likelihood of no change versus 27% for an increase, suggesting monetary policy expectations significantly influence the overall positioning. Any unexpected shifts in trade relationships, security alignments, or economic data between now and resolution would be the primary catalyst reshaping these probabilities.
- ›RBNZ May decision pricing (74% no-change vs. 27% increase) indicates market expectations about New Zealand's economic trajectory and policy direction
- ›New Zealand's Palestine recognition probability (16¢) reflects diplomatic positioning that could influence broader geopolitical assessment
- ›Christopher Luxon leadership stability at 51¢ suggests political continuity is moderately priced in through early 2027
- ›The 25-point gap between leader (56%) and runner-up (31%) indicates meaningful confidence differentiation rather than uncertainty clustering
- ›Low trading volumes on most related contracts ($12-$1000 24h) suggest limited new information flow and potential for repricing on modest catalyst events
What moved the line
- May 7New Zealand↓18pp30→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Belgium↑6pp57→63¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.