What is the current probability for "Newcastle vs Brighton Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 37¢ (37% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 16, 2026. 22 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Newcastle vs Brighton Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3348.8% and 812.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Newcastle vs Brighton Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Newcastle vs Brighton Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Newcastle vs Brighton Winner?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. Newcastle's win contract has collapsed from 27¢ to 14¢ over seven days, now pricing Newcastle at just 14% implied probability despite being the higher-ranked team historically.

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37¢

Bid/Ask 33/36¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $48.47·OI $183.48·Closes May 16, 2026·22d remaining

KXEPLGAME-26MAY02NEWBRI-BRI

7-day price112 snapshots · 6 regime

34¢33¢ current

Apr 164¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

Newcastle's win contract has collapsed from 27¢ to 14¢ over seven days, now pricing Newcastle at just 14% implied probability despite being the higher-ranked team historically. The extreme 3608.5% implied yield on the Yes side combined with near-zero liquidity ($3 open interest, $0 volume) and a massive 10¢ spread suggests this is a deeply illiquid micro-market where the price may not reflect true odds. With 27 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, the market remains vulnerable to sharp repricing as the May 2 fixture approaches and more capital enters.

Resolution rules

If Brighton wins the Newcastle vs Brighton professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 2, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3348.8%

IY (No) 812.4%

Adj IY 1674%

CRI 2

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3348.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	812.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1674%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:55:42 AM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY02NEWBRI-BRI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →