Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Resolution Ambiguity Score: Quantifying Rule-Risk Per Market

A heuristic 0-10 score for the rule risk on a prediction market, based on edge case count, venue dispute history, and source-of-truth specificity. The pre-trade discipline that catches Polymarket UMA disputes and Kalshi rule-mismatches before they catch you.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Cross-Venue Convergence Dynamics: Why Kalshi and Polymarket Converge — and When They Don't

Why the same outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket usually trades within 2-5 cents — and the three specific things that cause the gap to widen. Diagnostic guide and worked convergence trade.