Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?

The market has experienced extreme volatility with realized volatility at 444% and a dramatic 7-day price drop from 68¢ to 51¢, suggesting significant negative information arrival about Carrick's candidacy at a rate of 0.9 events per hour. At 51¢ with a 5¢ spread and only $1.8K in 24-hour volume against $4.5M open interest, liquidity is notably thin relative to positions held, creating potential slippage risk for larger trades. The elevated implied yield of 147% and cliff risk index of 1 indicate the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty with a binary outcome structure, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional bias despite the recent selloff.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Manchester United. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Manchester United; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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