Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?

Ole Gunnar Solskjær is priced at just 3¢ on Polymarket with an extreme 4604% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting near-zero probability despite $974.8k in open interest and a notable 50% price increase over 7 days (2¢ to 3¢). The 2¢ bid-ask spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest illiquidity, while the high Cliff Risk Index of 32 indicates significant tail risk as the market approaches its 256-day expiry. The cross-venue data showing this market also listed on Kalshi at null¢ suggests potential data gaps or extremely depressed pricing elsewhere, warranting caution on the reliability of this valuation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Manchester United. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Manchester United; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade