Christopher Luxon · Next Prime Minister of New Zealand
Christopher Luxon is priced at 45¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 31¢ bid, 58¢ ask, 27¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?.
Price history
45¢ current
Contract brief
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Christopher Luxon
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
Christopher Luxon 45¢
Range
0¢-45¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
0xe47bf7ef...1b51
May 29, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
58¢
Spread
27¢
Reported volume
$513
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 58¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Identifier
0xe47bf7ef…1b51
Event family
Next Prime Minister of New Zealand.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Christopher Luxon 45¢
Current share
15%
Christopher Luxon
polymarket · 0xe47bf7ef4d5476dba1e9c920b82cfeb54157399f951fdc83ac7868d4896d1b51
Chris Hipkins
polymarket · 0xecffb867dc6b5421ec726ff8a44de5a538ccbad7dc1ea5c8b175b00293227cb5
Winston Peters
polymarket · 0xb2a0400f22578a6fd694aa89613d3e38918b15c222ddc844cabcee24aab0e7db
Chlöe Swarbrick
polymarket · 0x019fa8566706b244422275cef69ed636cc5fb4c7a361b8726723e669c7c28d49
Nicola Willis
polymarket · 0x49ca5b6402d30912f79497b12211fd12571d1beef9cdc3e014491d202b1c863c
Carmel Sepuloni
polymarket · 0xec0f0488794acf9c9c1c065ded931fae0958c936a92d6c381e54c07666f0e1d5
David Seymour
polymarket · 0xc373506f31377031294354429d846470a7dd62c51ba6712e76a401168888ac82
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.