Next Prime Minister of New Zealand
Leader sits at 45% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Christopher Luxon
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Chris Hipkins
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
161 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Next Prime Minister of New Zealand
Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?: Chlöe Swarbrick
0x019fa8…8d49
Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?: Chris Hipkins
0xecffb8…7cb5
Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?: Christopher Luxon
0xe47bf7…1b51
Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?: Winston Peters
0xb2a040…e7db
Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?: Nicola Willis
0x49ca5b…863c
Analysis
Christopher Luxon, New Zealand's current Prime Minister, is priced at 44% to remain in the position at the next change of leadership, while former PM Chris Hipkins is next at 31%. This probability reflects market expectations about whether Luxon will complete his current term or lose office sooner through either electoral defeat or internal party pressure. The market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty: the second-place outcome carries 30% combined probability, suggesting traders view his position as favorable but not dominant. Key factors affecting this price include domestic economic conditions, polling trends ahead of New Zealand's 2026 general election, and internal Labour Party dynamics around Hipkins. The election itself, scheduled for late 2026, represents the primary near-term catalyst that would materially shift these probabilities. Market activity has been minimal recently across most contracts, suggesting limited new information flowing into pricing.
- ›Christopher Luxon held the premiership as of May 2026, creating incumbency advantage but also exposure to economic or political shocks before the scheduled general election
- ›Chris Hipkins, the main alternative, represents Labour's last elected PM; his 31% price reflects viability as a potential comeback candidate if sentiment shifts
- ›New Zealand's 2026 general election represents the scheduled resolution event; outcomes could either return Luxon to office or elevate an alternative candidate
- ›Minimal 24-hour trading volume on most contracts indicates low recent conviction or new information entering the market
- ›The 44% probability for the leading outcome, combined with 26% distributed among three minor candidates, suggests the market views both Luxon retention and a transition as plausible scenarios
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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