Will Andoni Iraola be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Andoni Iraola be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $39,992 open interest and a wide 15¢ spread, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $39,992 open interest and a wide 15¢ spread, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 944.3% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the low price and long 259-day timeframe, but the modest 7¢ price movement over seven days indicates limited recent conviction around Iraola's appointment odds. With a Cliff Risk Index of 7 and nearly nine months until expiration, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal trading activity rather than an efficiently priced market.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Real Madrid. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Real Madrid; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xa263d53499b9afb30e45275b88b742d59d7fdc1694ad40b5f3f1a5633965cd39 yes 100