Angela Rayner · Next UK Prime Minister in 2026
Angela Rayner is priced at 6¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?.
Price history
6¢ current
−9¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Angela Rayner
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Andy Burnham 58¢
Range
0¢-58¢
Family volume
$8.3M
Identifier
0xe955eda7...f8fa
Jun 7, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$8.3M
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xe955eda7…f8fa
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 8¢, -2¢ versus this page.
Event family
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8.3M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Andy Burnham 58¢
Current share
7%
Andy Burnham
polymarket · 0x763a7f1e440693b54c56da02d338c2092053567dd865174387d06ee5612fdc9e
No Next PM in 2026
polymarket · 0x360229ef7e200995eeedfab6fd63514c8a43fcee803e8ac6dbe17065bd024d60
Angela Rayner
polymarket · 0xe955eda79ad9ac1e9c055edc23fb5134eb2ace68508645d261c4de8db921f8fa
Ed Miliband
polymarket · 0x9e329c0e729c96b40014938bc0cb63c1637995c571c7ba39bab72028e92525da
Nigel Farage
polymarket · 0x7ca95f6c38e50e158279df39b2f30dbd005edc94ee64c6e4f50912e40bd16b5c
Rupert Lowe
polymarket · 0xf365e4c2d0ed67ffb8263cac97570e02664099fd25d1a8bd201e53dc883d86f1
Shabana Mahmood
polymarket · 0xc11e997578fa83b91b9a0838d90379960628d4834d887c6c5c427576834bc675
Yvette Cooper
polymarket · 0xb3fbac28ca420448a4c4b18a1cb6ef4db17d099e5674f5461fe848397d669382
Rachel Reeves
polymarket · 0x3c9119a8f3be868a667b922c13f2370bb14cd61944a6b96388df41aa59238213
Robert Jenrick
polymarket · 0x6b4b89bb3bfeadcacfd1c256e75dc01e41589c4427387c7114ae6508fbc0e02b
Ed Davey
polymarket · 0x8e19827705b34f87e142d1112efbdbf8b66e07fcf523aef5deb08af99be057b1
David Lammy
polymarket · 0xe8320226abf954b7f252d4de969ddacf933a694ade8988834a457e8ce5649e5a
Lucy Powell
polymarket · 0x74e5ba38a2cb8332c748ef8c74cadc36dc91f406a1a48870aca409c6449b03f5
James Cleverly
polymarket · 0xcead388a140c4356ff21d8571bc84ce0f940b3173e248a3d3aa25814aeb354b1
Kemi Badenoch
polymarket · 0xf187c96c1972bff33fb19e543ae44c80f0e158db9d6e6e7d48242b1b83b6d1ae
Boris Johnson
polymarket · 0x8025fb16d3cd32c728c42d84999842b6fda4e68a8c838628c4652ad71546bcbf
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.